A year ago, Texas entered the season ranked No. 1 in the country.
Arch Manning entered as the most celebrated quarterback in college football.
Steve Sarkisian had taken the Longhorns to consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals.
Everything seemed lined up for Texas to take the final step.
It did not happen.
Texas stumbled early, lost three regular-season games, missed the playoff and ended up in the Citrus Bowl. Yet something important happened before the season ended.
Arch Manning started looking like Arch Manning.
Texas won seven of its final eight games. Manning played his best football down the stretch. The Longhorns beat Texas A&M to close the regular season and then defeated Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl, with Manning producing 376 yards of offense and four touchdowns.
Now Texas enters 2026 ranked No. 5 in the AP Poll and No. 4 in the Coaches Poll, and the expectations have returned.
Only this time, the story feels different.
Manning no longer represents potential. He has 13 games of experience as Texas' full-time starter.
And Sarkisian no longer has to prove that he can rebuild Texas.
He has already done that.
The question now is whether the combination of Arch and Sark can finish what they started.
Last Year May Have Been Exactly What Arch Manning Needed
The hype surrounding Manning before 2025 was almost impossible to satisfy.
He had barely played meaningful college football and was already being discussed as a Heisman Trophy favorite, future No. 1 NFL Draft pick and the quarterback who would return Texas to the top of college football.
Then reality arrived.
Texas opened at Ohio State and lost 14-7.
A month later, the Longhorns lost 29-21 at Florida.
Suddenly Manning was not being evaluated like a first-year starting quarterback.
He was being evaluated against the mythology surrounding his last name.
But the quarterback who finished the season looked considerably different from the one who began it.
Manning finished 2025 completing 248 of 404 passes for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
More important was what happened late.
Over his final six games, Manning threw for 1,714 yards, averaged 286 passing yards per game and accounted for 20 total touchdowns. Texas says he averaged 320 yards of total offense per game over that stretch.
Then came the Citrus Bowl.
Against Michigan, Manning completed 21 of 34 passes for 221 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 155 yards and two more scores.
That may have been the most important game of his college career.
Not because Texas needed to win the Citrus Bowl.
Because Manning looked completely comfortable being the reason Texas won it.
This Is What Sarkisian Has Been Building Toward
Sarkisian's Texas tenure should be viewed in perspective.
His first team went 5-7. Then Texas improved to 8-5. Then came 12-2 and a College Football Playoff semifinal in 2023. Then 13-3 and another semifinal in 2024.
Last year’s 10-3 season felt disappointing only because Sarkisian had already elevated expectations so dramatically.
He enters 2026 with a 48-20 record at Texas and three consecutive 10-win seasons, something the Longhorns had not accomplished since 2007 through 2009.
That is why this season feels important.
Texas has already returned to national relevance. Sark has already recruited elite classes. He has already beaten top programs. He has already reached the playoff.
Now comes the last step.
Win the SEC. Win the national championship.
Anything short of that does not make Sarkisian unsuccessful.
But Texas has reached the stage where championships are the standard.
Sark Finally Gets the Experienced Arch
This may be the most interesting aspect of the partnership.
Sarkisian is considered one of the best quarterback developers and offensive designers in college football.
But last season, he had to balance his offensive creativity against Manning's inexperience.
That should change in 2026.
Manning has now seen SEC defenses. He has played at Ohio State. He has experienced the Red River Rivalry. He has faced Georgia. He has beaten Texas A&M. He has played in a bowl game against Michigan.
Those experiences matter.
Sark should be able to give Manning more responsibility before the snap, expand the passing game and attack defenses more aggressively.
And Manning's rushing ability creates another dimension.
He is not simply a pocket quarterback with a famous last name.
The Michigan game demonstrated what happens when defenses have to account for him as a runner.
A quarterback who can throw vertically and legitimately threaten a defense with his legs is exactly the type of player around whom Sarkisian can build an elite offense.
The Receiver Room May Be Better
Manning will have help.
Texas returns Ryan Wingo, who earned second-team All-SEC honors last season and enters 2026 as one of the conference's top receivers.
Then Sark added one of the most intriguing transfers in college football: Cam Coleman.
Coleman arrives from Auburn after catching 56 passes for 708 yards and five touchdowns in 2025. He started 22 games over two seasons at Auburn and enters 2026 as a preseason All-SEC selection and Walter Camp preseason All-American.
Coleman and Wingo are both on the Biletnikoff Award watch list.
That gives Manning two legitimate outside weapons.
Wingo brings experience in Sarkisian's offense. Coleman brings size and proven SEC production.
Texas also has young talent throughout the receiver room.
The potential is obvious.
If Manning’s late-2025 improvement carries into September, Texas could have one of the most dangerous passing games in America.
The Running Game Got a Major Upgrade
One of Texas' biggest problems last season was balance.
The Longhorns averaged only 137.8 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per attempt.
That put additional pressure on Manning.
Sarkisian addressed it aggressively.
The biggest addition is Hollywood Smothers, who transferred from NC State after rushing for 939 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and earning first-team All-ACC honors. He also caught 37 passes.
Texas also added Raleek Brown, giving Sarkisian another explosive and versatile option.
A better running game could have an enormous impact on Manning.
If defenses have to respect Smothers and Brown, the play-action opportunities multiply.
Safeties have to move closer to the line. Passing windows get larger. And Manning no longer has to carry the entire offense on third down.
Texas does not need to become a run-first team.
It needs to make opponents pay for defending Arch.
The Offensive Line Has Building Blocks
Texas also returns two important pieces up front.
Trevor Goosby earned first-team All-SEC honors last season and enters 2026 as a Walter Camp preseason first-team All-American.
Brandon Baker started all 13 games at right tackle in 2025.
Both are on the Outland Trophy watch list.
That is important because Texas' schedule will feature some of the best defensive fronts in the country: Ohio State, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M.
Manning can be great and the receivers can be great, but none of it matters if Texas cannot protect him.
Sarkisian knows that.
The Longhorns need this line to become one of the strengths of the team.
Colin Simmons Could Be One of the Best Defensive Players in America
For all the attention Manning receives, Texas may have another genuine superstar on defense.
Colin Simmons is a problem.
Simmons led Texas last season with 15.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks, with his sack total leading the SEC. He also generated 15 pressures and forced three fumbles.
Through his first two seasons, Simmons already has 21 career sacks and 29.5 tackles for loss.
He enters 2026 as a Walter Camp preseason first-team All-American and one of the leading candidates for several major defensive awards.
Simmons gives Texas something every championship defense needs: a pass rusher who can wreck a play without a blitz.
Against the quarterbacks Texas will face this season, that could be critical.
Will Muschamp Is Back in Austin
There is also a major change on defense.
Will Muschamp is Texas' defensive coordinator.
Sarkisian replaced Pete Kwiatkowski after last season and brought Muschamp back to Austin, where he previously coordinated the Texas defense from 2008 through 2010.
That previous run was impressive.
During Muschamp's first tenure, Texas ranked No. 1 nationally with 119 sacks over the three-year period and ranked among the national top 10 in rushing defense and total defense. Texas reached the BCS National Championship Game after the 2009 season.
This is not the same era of college football.
Defenses now deal with spread offenses, RPOs, tempo and quarterbacks who can create outside structure.
But Muschamp's identity has never been complicated. Aggression. Physicality. Pressure. Disruption.
Put that philosophy together with Colin Simmons and Texas suddenly becomes very interesting defensively.
Rasheem Biles Gives Muschamp Another Weapon
Sarkisian also imported Rasheem Biles from Pitt, and the expectations are substantial.
Biles enters the season as a preseason first-team All-SEC linebacker and Walter Camp first-team All-American.
Add Biles to Simmons, defensive back Jelani McDonald and Texas' collection of highly recruited young defenders, and Muschamp has no shortage of talent.
Texas allowed 20.3 points and 338.8 yards per game last season while intercepting 16 passes.
The defense was not bad.
The expectation is that Muschamp makes it more disruptive.
That distinction could become important in close SEC games.
Texas Has One of the Best Rosters in the Country
The preseason honors reflect the roster's depth.
Texas placed 11 players on the Coaches preseason All-SEC teams, tied with Georgia for the most in the league. Five Longhorns made the first team.
Texas also had a national-best five players selected to Walter Camp's preseason All-America teams.
This is not a team built around Arch Manning and hoping everyone else is good enough.
The roster is loaded.
That is precisely why the expectations are so high.
Then You Look at the Schedule
And this is where everything becomes complicated.
Texas may have one of the most talented teams in America.
It may also have one of the most difficult paths to an undefeated season imaginable.
The Longhorns open at home against Texas State.
Then, in Week 2: No. 1 Ohio State comes to Austin.
One week later comes UTSA.
Then Texas travels to Knoxville to face No. 20 Tennessee.
After the first bye: No. 10 Oklahoma in Dallas.
Then Florida. Then No. 9 Ole Miss. Then Mississippi State.
Then comes November.
At No. 25 Missouri. At No. 11 LSU. Arkansas. At No. 8 Texas A&M.
That is seven preseason Top 25 opponents.
Five are on the road or at a neutral site.
Texas could be an outstanding football team and still lose twice.
Ohio State Gives Arch an Immediate Chance at Redemption
The September 12 game against Ohio State could be one of the biggest games of the entire college football season.
Last year's opener in Columbus was Manning's first start as the full-time face of Texas football.
The Longhorns lost 14-7.
This time Ohio State comes to Austin.
The Buckeyes are ranked No. 1. Texas is No. 5.
The atmosphere at DKR should be extraordinary.
And this time Manning has an entire season behind him.
It is difficult to imagine a better early measuring stick.
If Texas wins, the narrative changes immediately.
The Longhorns likely move toward the top two or three. Arch becomes a leading Heisman candidate. And the discussion about whether Texas can win the national championship gets much louder.
Lose?
The playoff is still completely attainable.
But suddenly the margin for error becomes much smaller.
Tennessee Makes September Brutal
Two weeks later, Texas goes to Neyland Stadium.
That matters because there is an enormous difference between playing one marquee nonconference game and playing two before October begins.
Ohio State will test Texas' ability to handle elite talent.
Tennessee will test whether the Longhorns can immediately turn around and win in one of the loudest environments in college football.
This is where the schedule could begin to take a toll.
Texas does not have the luxury of gradually figuring itself out.
Arch and Sark need the offense ready immediately.
Oklahoma Is Never Just Another Game
Then comes Dallas.
Texas beat Oklahoma 23-6 last season, one of the victories that helped the Longhorns recover from their early stumble.
But the Red River Rivalry is one of the least predictable games in college football.
Oklahoma enters 2026 ranked No. 10.
A Texas team that survives Ohio State and Tennessee could still arrive at the Cotton Bowl knowing everything is on the line again.
This is why projecting the Longhorns' final record is so difficult.
There are almost no stretches where the season allows them to relax.
Ole Miss Could Be the Biggest Home Game After Ohio State
Texas hosts Ole Miss on October 24.
The Rebels begin the season ranked No. 9 and are again expected to be part of the SEC and playoff races.
That means DKR gets two potential Top 10 games during the regular season.
Ohio State tests Texas early. Ole Miss could determine where Texas stands entering November.
And November is where the schedule becomes genuinely vicious.
Three Major Road Games in November
Consider this sequence: November 7 at Missouri, November 14 at LSU, November 21 against Arkansas and November 27 at Texas A&M.
There may not be another national-title contender with a more difficult closing month.
Baton Rouge is never easy. College Station in a rivalry game is never easy. Missouri begins the season ranked. Arkansas sits between them with nothing to lose.
This is why Texas may have to be evaluated differently than some of the other Top Five teams.
A 10-2 Texas team could have a stronger case than an 11-1 team playing a significantly lighter schedule.
Texas A&M Could Again Decide Everything
Last year's regular-season finale was one of Texas' best performances.
Texas A&M entered ranked No. 3.
Texas beat the Aggies 27-17, giving the Longhorns their third Top 10 victory of the regular season.
Now the game moves to College Station.
Imagine the possibilities.
Texas could enter 10-1 with a playoff berth on the line. Texas A&M could be playing for an SEC Championship Game spot. Arch Manning could be in the Heisman race.
The rivalry could have national championship consequences.
That is exactly what the SEC version of Texas and Texas A&M was supposed to become.
The Biggest Risk May Be Expectations
Texas knows what happened last year.
No. 1 preseason ranking. Heisman hype. National championship predictions. Then a 3-2 start.
The 2026 team should benefit from having lived through that.
There is less mystery surrounding Manning.
Nobody has to project what he might look like as a starter anymore.
There are 13 games of evidence.
He was imperfect. Then he got better.
That may actually be healthier for both Manning and Texas.
The Longhorns do not need Arch to become Peyton Manning, Eli Manning or anyone else.
They need him to become the quarterback who played the final two months of last season.
Sarkisian's job is to put that version of Arch Manning in advantageous situations as often as possible.
This Is Why the Arch and Sark Partnership Matters
Great quarterbacks and great offensive coaches do not automatically produce championships.
But they provide an enormous advantage.
Sarkisian knows exactly what he wants offensively. Manning now knows what Sarkisian expects from him.
That relationship has had a full season to develop.
Sark can call games differently. Manning can see defenses differently.
And Texas can structure the offense around his strengths rather than protecting him from his inexperience.
That could be the difference between 2025 and 2026.
Last year, Manning was learning how to become Texas' quarterback.
This year, he already is Texas' quarterback.
Now he gets to determine how good Texas can become.
Can Texas Win the SEC?
Absolutely.
Georgia was picked by SEC media to win the conference, but Texas has one of the few rosters capable of matching Georgia player for player.
The problem is the schedule.
Texas has to navigate Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M and several other dangerous conference games just to reach Atlanta.
And reaching the SEC Championship Game creates another potential Top 10 matchup before the playoff begins.
A 12-0 or 11-1 Texas team would have an extraordinary case.
Even 10-2 could be enough depending on the losses.
The important thing will be avoiding the type of defeat that damaged Texas last year.
There is little shame in losing to Ohio State or LSU.
Losing a game Texas is clearly supposed to win would be much more damaging.
So, Is Arch Manning a Heisman Candidate?
Yes.
But perhaps this time the argument is based on what he has done rather than what everyone expects him to become.
Manning threw for more than 3,100 yards last season. He threw 26 touchdowns. He accounted for 20 touchdowns over his final six games. He produced 376 yards and four touchdowns against Michigan.
He enters the season on the Maxwell, Walter Camp, Davey O'Brien, Manning and other major award watch lists.
And his schedule provides enormous opportunities: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M.
Heisman campaigns are built around moments.
Arch Manning will have plenty of chances to create them.
TD Strike Prediction
Texas may be better in 2026 than it was during its consecutive playoff semifinal seasons.
The roster is that talented.
Arch Manning should be considerably more comfortable. Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo give him elite receiving talent. Hollywood Smothers should improve the running game. Trevor Goosby and Brandon Baker provide experience on the offensive line. Colin Simmons might be one of the best pass rushers in America. Will Muschamp could make an already talented defense more aggressive.
Sarkisian has built exactly the kind of roster Texas expected him to build when it hired him.
The only thing working against the Longhorns is one of the most difficult schedules in college football.
That makes perfection unlikely.
It does not make a championship unlikely.
Prediction: Texas finishes 10-2, reaches the College Football Playoff and remains a serious national championship threat.
The Ohio State game could go either way.
The road sequence involving Tennessee, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M makes another loss probable.
But if Texas reaches December at 10-2 after navigating this schedule, nobody will want to play the Longhorns.
And if they get to 11-1?
They may enter the playoff as one of the favorites to win the whole thing.
Steve Sarkisian has already brought Texas back.
Arch Manning has already survived the expectations that came with becoming the Texas quarterback.
Now the two enter 2026 together with something neither had a year ago: experience with each other when the games actually matter.
Sark knows his quarterback. Arch knows Sark's offense.
And Texas has the roster around them to win a championship.
2026 may ultimately come down to whether Arch and Sark can turn all of that talent into the one thing Texas has been chasing since 2005: another national title.