Cal preview: is this a Top 25 team?

For the first time in a while, the most interesting question surrounding Cal football is not whether the Bears can become bowl eligible.

It is something considerably more ambitious:

Is Cal actually a Top 25 team?

The preseason voters are not quite ready to say yes. California begins the 2026 season outside the AP Top 25, receiving just two voting points. The Coaches Poll gave the Bears only one. ACC media members were even more skeptical, picking Cal 12th out of 17 teams in the conference.

Yet those rankings may be missing what has changed in Berkeley.

Cal has a potentially star quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, an aggressive new head coach in Tosh Lupoi, a top-tier transfer class, dramatically improved skill-position talent and a schedule that gives the Bears a realistic opportunity to build momentum quickly.

This does not look like a national championship contender.

But a Top 25 team?

That possibility should be taken seriously.

It Starts With JKS

Any argument for Cal breaking into the rankings begins with Sagapolutele.

As a true freshman last season, JKS completed 316 of 492 passes for 3,454 yards and 18 touchdowns while starting all 13 games. He threw for at least 200 yards in every game, becoming the only Power Four quarterback to begin his college career with 13 consecutive 200-yard passing performances.

Those are not merely good freshman numbers.

At Cal, they immediately bring up a familiar name: Jared Goff.

Sagapolutele finished second only to Goff among Cal freshmen in completions, attempts, passing yards and touchdown passes. And by the end of the season, he was beginning to look less like a talented freshman and more like a quarterback capable of taking over games.

Cal's November upset of Louisville was an example. JKS threw for 323 yards in a 29-26 overtime victory over the then-No. 14 Cardinals. Three weeks later, against No. 21 SMU, he completed 31 of 40 passes for 330 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions as Cal won 38-35.

Those victories matter when evaluating Cal's ceiling.

The Bears already know their quarterback can beat ranked teams.

Now he is a sophomore.

If Sagapolutele makes the typical jump from Year 1 to Year 2, Cal could have one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC.

And in college football, having the right quarterback changes almost everything.

Cal Finally Gave Its Quarterback Some Weapons

Sagapolutele put up those freshman numbers despite playing on an offense that was often badly unbalanced.

Cal averaged just 2.8 yards per rushing attempt as a team in 2025. The Bears finished with only 1,062 net rushing yards over 13 games.

That put enormous pressure on a freshman quarterback.

Tosh Lupoi and general manager Ron Rivera attacked the problem aggressively through the transfer portal.

Cal brought in 32 transfers as part of a 34-player February signing group. At the time, 247Sports ranked the transfer class second in the ACC and 14th nationally.

The offensive additions are particularly intriguing.

Washington transfer Adam Mohammed should immediately upgrade the backfield after rushing for 523 yards and five touchdowns last season. Cal also added UC Davis transfer Carter Vargas and UTEP transfer Ashten Emory, giving the Bears significantly more options at running back.

At receiver, JKS gets Ian Strong from Rutgers and Chase Hendricks from Ohio. The two combined for 333 receptions, 3,284 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns during their first three college seasons. Oregon transfer Cooper Perry adds another high-upside target.

And tight end might quietly become one of Cal's strongest position groups.

New Mexico transfer Dorian Thomas caught 56 passes for 560 yards last season. He joins returning tight end Mason Mini, who caught 35 passes for Cal in 2025.

That gives Sagapolutele something he did not consistently have as a freshman: multiple proven places to put the football.

The potential is obvious.

Cal could go from an offense heavily dependent on its quarterback to an offense that is genuinely difficult to defend.

The Tosh Lupoi Era Begins

The other reason for optimism is the man now running the program.

Cal moved on from Justin Wilcox late last season after nine years and a 48-55 record. General manager Ron Rivera then brought Tosh Lupoi home to Berkeley.

Lupoi is not an outsider trying to understand Cal.

He played defensive line for the Bears and later coached at Cal before building one of the more interesting resumes in college football. He spent five seasons at Alabama, where he was part of two national championship teams, coached in the NFL and then spent four seasons as Oregon's defensive coordinator and linebackers coach.

At Oregon, Lupoi was part of a program that went 47-7 over four seasons, won the 2024 Big Ten championship and reached the College Football Playoff twice.

That is a different recent football world than the one Cal has occupied.

The question is whether Lupoi can transfer that culture to Berkeley.

He has never been a college head coach before. Offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville and defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings are also entering new roles, giving Cal one of the more inexperienced leadership groups in the ACC despite an impressive collection of resumes.

That is one of the biggest reasons to resist getting carried away with the preseason optimism.

There is significant upside here.

There is also significant uncertainty.

The Defense Is the Biggest Mystery

Ironically, defense may be the biggest question facing a team coached by Lupoi.

Cal lost substantial production from last year’s unit and responded by importing talent from some of the best programs in the country.

Among the defensive newcomers are players from Oregon, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Georgia, USC, Louisville and Mississippi State. Seven of Cal’s defensive transfers played for teams that reached the 2025 College Football Playoff.

The names include Oregon transfers Kingston Lopa, Kamar Mothudi and Jericho Johnson, Texas A&M transfers Solomon Williams and Tristan Jernigan, Georgia defensive back Daniel Harris, and Ole Miss corner Ricky Fletcher.

On paper, the athleticism is impressive.

The problem is that several of those players were highly regarded recruits who have not yet been full-time college starters.

That makes Cal's defense perhaps the most fascinating variable on the roster.

If Lupoi and Hutchings can turn that collection of former four-star recruits into a cohesive defense, Cal's ceiling rises dramatically.

If the group needs half a season to figure things out, the Bears could find themselves in too many shootouts.

The Schedule Creates a Real Opportunity

This is where the Top 25 argument becomes especially interesting.

Cal does not play Miami.

It does not play Louisville.

It does not play Notre Dame.

And according to the preseason AP Poll, the Bears face only one currently ranked opponent all season: No. 19 SMU. Clemson is just outside the rankings and received 112 points, five fewer than No. 25 Missouri.

That is a manageable schedule for a team trying to climb into the rankings.

Cal opens September 5 by hosting UCLA in Berkeley. It then travels to Syracuse, hosts Wagner and gets Clemson under the lights at Memorial Stadium on Friday, September 25.

Then comes a trip to UNLV before home games against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.

The most difficult portion arrives afterward: at SMU, at NC State and at Virginia over three consecutive road games, although a bye separates NC State and Virginia. Cal finishes at home against Stanford and Pittsburgh.

There is no Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia or Notre Dame waiting here.

There is not even a preseason Top 15 team.

For a talented but unproven Cal roster, that matters enormously.

UCLA Could Change the Conversation Immediately

The season opener is more important than a typical Week 1 game.

Cal and UCLA spent more than nine decades together as conference opponents before realignment split them apart. Now they meet in Berkeley as nonconference opponents for the first time.

Cal won their last meeting 33-7 at the Rose Bowl in 2023.

A convincing win over UCLA on ESPN would immediately attract attention.

Then look at what follows.

If Cal beats UCLA, wins at Syracuse and handles Wagner, the Bears would enter their nationally televised Friday night game against Clemson at 3-0.

Win that one?

Cal would almost certainly have a very different number next to its name when the following AP Poll came out.

The path to becoming ranked is sitting directly in front of the Bears.

Clemson Is the Early Measuring Stick

The September 25 game may tell us more about Cal than any other matchup during the first half of the season.

Clemson begins 2026 just outside the AP Top 25 and is still one of the ACC's most talented programs. It will also be Clemson's first-ever visit to Berkeley.

The circumstances could be ideal for Cal.

Friday night. Memorial Stadium. National television. Potentially an undefeated Bears team. A nationally recognized opponent.

If Cal wants to establish that the Lupoi era represents something more than another seven-win season, that is exactly the kind of game it needs to win.

But We Have Seen This Movie Before

There is an important reason for caution.

Cal started 3-0 last season, including a 27-14 victory over Minnesota.

The Bears then traveled to San Diego State and lost 34-0. Later came a 45-21 home loss to Duke, a 42-34 defeat at Virginia Tech and a 31-21 loss to Virginia. Cal also lost the Big Game 31-10 to Stanford.

That team ultimately finished 7-6 after blowing a 21-0 lead in a 35-31 Hawai'i Bowl loss.

Yet there were tantalizing signs at the end.

Cal beat No. 14 Louisville on the road and No. 21 SMU at home within a three-week stretch. It was the first time the Bears had beaten ranked opponents in consecutive games since 2016.

That is why 2026 feels different.

Cal does not need to imagine what beating good ACC teams might look like.

It already did it.

The question is whether Lupoi can eliminate the inexplicable losses that prevented last year's team from becoming something more.

Is Cal an ACC Championship Contender?

That is a more difficult case to make.

Miami begins the season No. 7 nationally. SMU is No. 19. Louisville is No. 24. Clemson narrowly missed the Top 25.

Cal was picked 12th in the ACC for a reason. There are too many unknowns on defense and too much coaching turnover to declare the Bears a championship contender before anyone has played a game.

But the schedule provides an opening.

Cal avoids Miami and Louisville entirely. Clemson comes to Berkeley. Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech also come west. Even the game against SMU is hardly impossible considering Cal beat the Mustangs last November.

The Bears do not need to be the ACC's most talented team.

They need to survive the schedule better than most of the teams ahead of them.

A 6-2 conference record is not impossible.

And in a league without divisions, 6-2 could make the final weeks very interesting.

So, Is Cal a Top 25 Team?

Potentially, yes.

There is enough here to justify believing Cal is better than the preseason polls suggest.

Sagapolutele might be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. The receiving corps has been transformed. The running game should improve. Lupoi assembled a transfer class with the kind of recruiting pedigrees Cal has rarely accumulated in recent years. And the schedule contains very few games that look unwinnable.

But Cal has to prove that talent can become a team.

The defense is largely reconstructed. The coaching staff is new. The offensive line remains a question. And this is still a program that has not won eight regular-season games since 2019.

That makes 2026 one of the most intriguing Cal seasons in years.

The Bears do not start in the Top 25. They received only two AP votes. They were picked 12th in the ACC.

But if Cal starts 3-0 and beats Clemson in Berkeley, none of that will matter.

The question will no longer be whether Cal belongs in the Top 25.

It will be how high the Bears can climb.

TD Strike Prediction

Cal has enough offensive talent and a favorable enough schedule to make a meaningful jump in Year 1 under Tosh Lupoi.

Prediction: 8-4 overall, 5-3 in the ACC, with Cal entering the Top 25 at some point during the season.

The ceiling is higher. If the rebuilt defense develops quickly and Sagapolutele becomes one of the ACC’s elite quarterbacks, 9-3 and contention for a spot in the ACC Championship Game are realistic.

For the first time in years, predicting Cal to be ranked does not feel like wishful thinking.

It feels plausible.