Texas Tech did not simply win the Big 12 last season. The Red Raiders spent much of 2025 overwhelming it.
That was never more obvious than in Arlington, where Texas Tech turned a competitive Big 12 Championship Game into a rout, scoring 34 unanswered points to beat BYU 34-7. The Red Raiders forced four turnovers, limited BYU to just 200 total yards and held the Cougars scoreless over the final three quarters. It was actually Texas Tech's second dismantling of BYU in less than a month after beating the Cougars 29-7 during the regular season.
Now comes the harder part.
Can Texas Tech do it again?
The answer entering 2026 is yes. But the Red Raiders are not without vulnerabilities, and a Big 12 that includes BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona and several dangerous wild cards should make the road back to Arlington considerably more complicated than last year's championship score might suggest.
Texas Tech Remains the Team to Beat
Everything about Texas Tech's 2025 season suggested that its Big 12 championship was no fluke.
The Red Raiders finished 12-2, went 8-1 in conference play and incredibly won all 12 of their games by at least 20 points. They finished No. 8 nationally and earned the program's first College Football Playoff appearance.
The preseason polls have noticed. Texas Tech begins 2026 ranked No. 12 in both the AP and Coaches polls, the highest-ranked team in the Big 12. BYU, Utah and Houston are also ranked, giving the conference four teams in both preseason polls.
Texas Tech also led an informal preseason poll of 16 Big 12 beat writers, receiving 14 of 16 first-place votes. BYU received the other two.
The reason is not difficult to understand.
Texas Tech returns 11 starters from last year's championship team and seven players who were selected to the preseason All-Big 12 team. Defensive lineman A.J. Holmes Jr. was named the league's preseason Defensive Player of the Year, while linebacker Ben Roberts, cornerback Brice Pollock, tight end Terrance Carter Jr., running backs Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams, and several other important pieces return from last year's roster.
That defense remains the foundation.
In last year's championship game, Roberts intercepted BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier twice, and Texas Tech's defense completely changed the game after BYU opened with a 90-yard touchdown drive. The Cougars produced only 110 yards the rest of the afternoon.
The Question Is Quarterback
If there is one reason Texas Tech might not repeat, it is quarterback.
Behren Morton is gone, and the offseason plan to replace him with Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby collapsed after Sorsby's sports-wagering eligibility controversy. Sorsby will not play for Texas Tech in 2026.
That leaves Will Hammond as the expected starter.
Hammond is not an unknown. In limited action last season he completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 680 yards and seven touchdowns while rushing for another 299 yards and five scores. Most importantly, when Morton was unavailable at Utah, Hammond helped Texas Tech win 34-10 in Salt Lake City.
But Hammond is also coming back from a torn ACL.
If he is healthy and performs like the quarterback Texas Tech saw in flashes last season, the Red Raiders have enough talent around him to win the league again.
If he struggles or has problems staying healthy, the Big 12 race opens considerably.
Texas Tech Also Got a Friendly Schedule Draw
One of Texas Tech’s biggest advantages might have nothing to do with its roster.
The Red Raiders do not play BYU or Utah during the 2026 regular season.
Instead, their conference schedule begins with a potentially significant home game against Houston on September 18. Texas Tech also gets Arizona State, Arizona and West Virginia at home before finishing with trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor and a Thanksgiving night home game against TCU.
That does not mean the schedule is easy.
Houston and Arizona could both contend for the championship, and road games at Oklahoma State and Baylor late in the year could become traps.
But avoiding both BYU and Utah is a major break.
BYU Has the Best Argument for Revenge
If Texas Tech is No. 1 in the Big 12 entering the season, BYU deserves to be No. 2.
The Cougars are No. 14 in the AP poll after going 12-2 last season, and both losses came against Texas Tech.
The biggest reason to believe BYU can close the gap is that Bear Bachmeier is no longer a true freshman.
Bachmeier started all 14 games last season, completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 3,033 yards and produced 26 combined passing and rushing touchdowns. BYU also returns running back LJ Martin, the 2025 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, along with experienced pieces on the offensive line.
That combination gives BYU something Texas Tech does not currently possess: proven continuity at quarterback.
The schedule, however, is more demanding.
Arizona comes to Provo on September 12. BYU later travels to TCU, hosts Notre Dame and Arizona State, then visits Utah on November 7.
Interestingly, BYU and Texas Tech do not meet during the regular season.
A rematch in Arlington is entirely possible.
Utah May Be the Most Dangerous Challenger
Do not overlook Utah.
The Utes begin the season ranked No. 21, but that ranking might undersell a team coming off an 11-2 season.
Quarterback Devon Dampier returns after throwing for 2,490 yards and 24 touchdowns while rushing for 835 yards and 10 more scores. He produced those numbers despite playing much of the season with a sports hernia and ankle problems.
The major change comes on the sideline.
After 21 seasons under Kyle Whittingham, longtime Utah assistant Morgan Scalley takes over as head coach. Scalley knows the program as well as anyone could, but replacing one of college football's longest-tenured coaches still introduces uncertainty.
Utah's schedule will give us answers quickly. Arkansas comes to Salt Lake City on September 12, and the conference slate includes Houston at home, BYU at home and late road games at Arizona and TCU.
If Dampier is healthy and Utah's defense remains Utah's defense, the Utes are more than capable of reaching Arlington.
Houston Is No Longer a Sleeper
Calling Houston a sleeper may already be unfair.
The Cougars went 10-3 last season, won the Texas Bowl and enter 2026 ranked No. 23 in the AP poll.
Quarterback Conner Weigman returns after throwing for 2,705 yards and 36 touchdowns last season. Willie Fritz has also added former Tulane running back Makhi Hughes, giving Houston another proven offensive weapon.
We will know a great deal about Houston almost immediately.
On September 18, the Cougars go to Lubbock to play Texas Tech in a Friday night game on FOX.
That may be the first truly consequential Big 12 game of the season.
Win it, and Houston instantly becomes a championship favorite.
Arizona Has the Quarterback to Make a Run
Arizona might be the most interesting unranked team in the league.
The Wildcats improved from four wins to nine last season and return veteran quarterback Noah Fifita, the 2025 first-team All-Big 12 quarterback. Arizona is even mounting a Heisman campaign for him entering his final season.
The schedule gives Arizona several direct opportunities to influence the championship race.
The Wildcats play at BYU on September 12, at Texas Tech on October 31, host TCU on November 6, host Utah on November 14 and finish against Arizona State.
Arizona may not be the preseason favorite, but it could determine who wins the conference.
Then Come the Wild Cards
The defining characteristic of the modern Big 12 remains its depth.
TCU lost quarterback Josh Hoover to Indiana but replaces him with Harvard transfer Jaden Craig, a two-time All-Ivy League selection who threw 52 career touchdowns and was known for protecting the football. The Horned Frogs get BYU, Kansas State and Utah at home before ending the season at Texas Tech.
Kansas State begins a new era under former Wildcat star Collin Klein, but senior quarterback Avery Johnson returns. Perhaps more importantly, K-State avoids Texas Tech, BYU and Utah on its conference schedule.
Arizona State, the 2024 Big 12 champion, must replace quarterback Sam Leavitt, who transferred to LSU. Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley takes over for Kenny Dillingham's team.
Oklahoma State is rebuilding under Eric Morris after a 1-11 season, but North Texas transfer quarterback Drew Mestemaker gives the Cowboys immediate intrigue. Mestemaker was the 2025 American Conference Offensive Player of the Year and won the Burlsworth Trophy.
Even Baylor is interesting because former five-star Florida quarterback DJ Lagway arrives in Waco with Dave Aranda badly needing a turnaround.
That is the Big 12. There may not be many truly bad Saturdays.
The Conference Has Something Else to Prove
There is also a larger issue hanging over the Big 12.
Texas Tech dominated its conference last season, earned a College Football Playoff berth and then lost 23-0 to Oregon in the Orange Bowl.
That result matters.
The Big 12 does not simply need a team to reach the playoff. It needs one to win there.
Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire has acknowledged as much. Until Big 12 teams begin winning playoff games, the conference will continue fighting questions about how its champion compares with the best of the SEC and Big Ten.
That makes 2026 about more than who raises the trophy in Arlington.
So, Can Texas Tech Repeat?
Yes.
In fact, Texas Tech should still be considered the favorite.
The Red Raiders have arguably the deepest roster in the conference, an elite collection of defensive players, established running backs, a favorable Big 12 schedule and the confidence that comes from having already reached the top.
But the quarterback question makes this race far more interesting.
BYU may have the league's best combination of returning quarterback and running back. Utah has a healthy Devon Dampier. Houston has become a legitimate contender under Willie Fritz. Arizona has one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the conference.
And because Texas Tech does not play BYU or Utah during the regular season, the league could arrive at December with multiple teams carrying excellent conference records.
TD Strike Big 12 Prediction
Big 12 Championship: Texas Tech vs. BYU
The gap between the two teams should be much smaller than the 34-7 score we saw last December.
But until somebody proves otherwise, the Big 12 still runs through Lubbock.
Pick: Texas Tech repeats as Big 12 champion, with Utah and Houston close behind BYU as the teams most capable of preventing it.